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Totalis

derivative layer for prediction markets

Active Founders
Pravesh Mansharamani
Pravesh Mansharamani
Founder
building derivative layer for prediction markets | prev math @ waterloo
Eric Liu
Eric Liu
Founder
Building the derivatives layer for prediction markets. Previously data @ coinbase, mle @ faire, math @ uwaterloo.
Company Launches
Totalis - Parlay on Anything
See original launch post

TL;DR: Combine ideas across categories like crypto, politics, sports, and macro in one parlay!
try it out : app.totalis.trade

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Hey 👋 we’re Pravesh and Eric, building Totalis.

People usually don’t think in isolated events. We think in second and third-order effects:

  • if Google has the best AI model, does S&P price go up?
  • if Trump talks about Crypto, does BTC move?
  • if macro gets weird, do gold + crypto move together?

Right now, prediction markets mostly let you trade one event at a time. Totalis lets you trade the whole thesis.

A parlay is simple: pick 2–5 things you think will happen together, combine them into one trade, and get a larger payout if all legs hit.

Instead of putting $100 into each individual market, you can put $100 into the combined thesis. That makes it more capital efficient if your view is really about the events happening together.

For example:
“Google wins AI → SPY rips”
Thesis:
- if Google has the top AI model:
- GOOGL closes above target
- SPY closes above target

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“Geopolitics influencing asset prices”
Thesis:
- if Trump discusses “Iran” in China
- if Trump says “Crypto”
- Oil price above target
- BTC above target

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We’re starting with markets that resolve fast, data-rich, recurring, and with deep liquidity. These correlations are easiest to test.

How it works:
Browse markets across crypto, politics, stocks, sports, weather, and more. Add legs to a parlay. We send it through RFQ and market makers return a quote. You accept or reject. No orderbooks, no central “house” that controls payout structure to ensure profits.

Why now:
Prediction markets have exploded, but they still mostly look like single-event betting. In mature financial markets, people don’t just trade single assets — they trade baskets, spreads, options, hedges, and structured products.
Parlays are the first obvious primitive for prediction markets.

Asks:

  1. Try the app: app.totalis.trade
  2. Drop your favorite parlay below: what do you think happen together? We’d love to bring the best ones live and price them.
  3. Market makers: if you’re interested in making markets on parlays, or know someone who would be, please DM / intro us. We’d love to chat!

Note: For regulatory reasons, we’re only offering this product to people outside of US right now.

Pravesh & Eric

Totalis
Founded:2026
Batch:Spring 2026
Status:
Active
Primary Partner:Andrew Miklas